Hard line on North Korea

Much of Yoon’s campaign has focused on his tough stance on North Korea – a departure from Moon’s current approach, which has always promoted dialogue and peaceful reconciliation.

Talks between the two Koreas have stalled since the failure of a planned summit between the United States and North Korea in 2019, said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the North Korea. ‘Sejong Institute, before the elections. “Progress in the denuclearization negotiations is unlikely to be expected unless the next government offers a sophisticated denuclearization solution acceptable to both the United States and North Korea,” he said. he added.

Yoon’s main rival in the election, Lee of the Democratic Party, had supported the kind of trust-based reciprocal engagement that Moon sought. Yoon, on the other hand, promised to reinforce the South Korean military, even hinting that he would launch a preemptive strike if he saw signs of an offensive launch against Seoul.

Throughout his campaign, Yoon has denounced the Democratic Party’s “policy of subservience to North Korea”, vowing not to ease sanctions or prepare a peace treaty until the North “does not active efforts for complete and verifiable denuclearization”.

Speaking in Seoul on January 24, Yoon added that the door to diplomacy and dialogue “will always be left open” — but that he would pursue peace “based on a strong national defense posture, not submission”.

“We will build a powerful military force that can surely deter any provocation to protect the safety and property of our citizens and safeguard the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our nation,” Yoon said.

But experts warn that this harder line could see relations deteriorate between the two countries. Some fear military tensions could return to crisis levels seen in 2017, when aggressive weapons testing and North Korea’s advancement prompted displays of military force between the United States and South Korea, as well as a threat from then US President Donald Trump to unleash “fire and fury such as the world has never seen”.

Cheong of the Sejong Institute said it seemed clear Yoon’s election would lead to a “return to Cold War-era hostile relations” in inter-Korean relations.

The American-Chinese tightrope

Yoon’s victory will also likely alter South Korea’s relationship with two feuding global superpowers: the United States and China.

For years the country has walked a tightrope of a close security alliance with the United States and a growing economic relationship with China – but ‘the time and period for this kind of tradition is ending’ , said Kim Jiyoon, a researcher at Sogang. University Institute of Social Sciences.

While Lee suggested he would try to balance the two partnerships, Yoon made it clear what he would prioritize.

“South Korea and the United States share an alliance forged in blood as we fought together to protect freedom from the tyranny of communism,” Yoon said in January, adding that the country must “rebuild this alliance “.

As part of the push, Yoon suggested he would seek the installation of a second anti-ballistic missile system – which would no doubt infuriate China.

Under the new administration, “it is inevitable that relations between South Korea and China will deteriorate again, further tightening South Korea’s diplomatic position and dealing some blow to the Korean economy,” Cheong said. .

Yoon also pointed to the technological benefits of a closer alliance with the United States, saying it could help South Korea maintain its edge against “competitive nations, including China.”

Yoon’s stance reflects public sentiment in the South, which is currently “hawkish and very tough,” said Kim of Sogang University. This is probably “the biggest antagonism for China shared by the Korean public, which means a very strong and friendly feeling towards the United States,” she added.

This feeling seems to be mutual. Biden and Yoon had a call on Thursday, with the US president inviting Yoon to visit the White House. Biden added that he hoped for a deeper bilateral relationship with South Korea and that “close coordination … regarding North Korean policy will be important.”

problems at home

The war of the sexes in South Korea intensified as elections approached, with young voters becoming increasingly gender-divided.

Faced with a hypercompetitive labor market and soaring property prices, so-called “anti-feminists” have argued that the country’s attempt to tackle gender inequality has tilted too far in favor of women. Feminists, on the other hand, pointed to the country’s widespread sexual violence, entrenched gender expectations, and low representation of women on corporate boards and in politics as examples of how discrimination at the regard for women is still prevalent.

Both leading presidential hopefuls weighed in on the issue, with Lee expressing support for women’s rights while Yoon actively courted votes among anti-feminists. One of Yoon’s main campaign promises was to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, saying it is unfair to men. He also promised to increase the sentence for falsely reporting sex crimes.

CNN contacted Yoon’s office for comment on its gender policies, but did not receive a response.

Anti-feminists have formed a powerful electoral bloc in South Korea. Last April, Moon’s Democratic Party lost municipal elections in Seoul and its second-largest city, Busan, as exit polls showed young men in their 20s had overwhelmingly shifted their vote to the Democratic Party. people power of Yoon.

As the election approached, some feared that if Yoon won, gender divisions could widen further and the women’s rights movement could be set back.

“The gender gap is widest among the younger generation,” Kim said. “If you go up to the older generation, it’s actually convergent, but it’s the broadest and most divergent between young women and young men.”