What did Putin ask for?

The official Kremlin line amid the current standoff centers on Putin’s demands for security guarantees for Russia, which would include a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion and a formal veto on the Ukraine never to join the military alliance. He also wants NATO to cancel its military deployments in the region. The demands would dramatically reshape the security landscape in Europe and have been largely rejected by Washington and the military alliance.

Putin’s statements about Ukraine’s history and statehood have given Russian observers the impression that he views Ukraine as “unfinished business” and that he wants to follow up the takeover. Crimea on new moves to bring the country back under Moscow’s influence, as it harbors an ambition to reconstitute a Moscow-led Eastern bloc reminiscent of Soviet times.

“He is personally, deeply and emotionally invested in reclaiming Russia’s former power over its neighbours,” said Keir Giles, senior Russia and Eurasia program consultant at London-based think tank Chatham House.

Seeing Ukraine slowly but surely slip out of Kremlin control and align itself with the West, Putin may feel that “the time has come” to reassert his long-held claims to a greater measure of power from Russia. , added Giles.

Why now?

Since the overthrow of the pro-Russian government in Kiev in 2014, Moscow has wanted to bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence. But the current crisis also comes amid heightened tensions between the Kremlin and the West, sparked by Washington’s accusations that Russia meddled in the 2016 presidential election, used chemical weapons to harass to his enemies abroad and intensified the repression of all forms of dissent in his country. , including the imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Russia has gained in capability and confidence, and the combination appears to have convinced Putin that he is in the best possible position to reassert his demands, Giles said.

Russia’s capabilities have grown following a decades-long program to rebuild its military might, he added, and the Kremlin’s confidence has grown due to the continued failure of the West and Western institutions to deter its geopolitical ambitions.

While some Western officials have questioned the Kremlin’s claim that it is threatened by NATO, there is no doubt that Russia aspires to roll back security in Eastern Europe and remove the United States and NATO as guarantors of security in the region, Giles said.

“Most of the public discussion of Russia’s demands has missed the point that what Russia is asking for is not security guarantees for itself, but the removal of security guarantees for much of the world. Europe,” he added.

The end result would be a continent dominated by Russian military power and threatened by Russian missiles, he added.

The growing number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and now in Belarus has been the “hypnotist’s watch” for the West, Giles said, fulfilling a Kremlin goal of “terrifying” the United States and its Western allies. for them to open negotiations with Russia on the future. security of Europe – a subject which “should be excluded”.

Domestic pressures?

Ukraine is just an “unfortunate victim and the most convenient place for Putin to mount his demands with threats”, according to Giles.

His comments echoed those of Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko, who told Russian channel TV Rain on Saturday that Moscow was using Ukraine as a “hot spot” to blackmail the West.

Putin’s motivation could also include a desire to shore up his base at home – a popular military victory as a distraction from domestic troubles.

Its popularity with Russians soared after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

“Putin would no doubt be happy to present a foreign policy victory over the West, whether real or illusory, in the run-up to his re-election as president in 2024,” Giles said.

Putin could run for up to two more six-year terms once his current term expires, after a controversial legislative change in 2020.

Still, military action in Ukraine could be a tough sell to the Russian public, especially if the stalemate turns into a protracted conflict. Secretary of State Antony Blinken appealed to this in a speech in Berlin last week, warning Russians of “unnecessary war” with their neighbor and “young people who will risk or even give their lives”.

Maintaining tension over Ukraine also helps Putin reinforce his image as a resolute defender of Russia’s interests in his country.

“He wants to elevate his own and Russia’s status on the international stage, and consolidate recognition of Russia’s exclusive interests,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kyiv-based political analyst and director of the Penta Center think tank. . “He wants people to be scared. It’s important to him.

Will he or won’t he?

Military pundits and analysts are divided on whether Putin intends to engage in full-scale war against Ukraine. The United States and its allies say Russia has been massing forces around eastern and southern Ukraine for months. The Russian Defense Ministry this month shared photos of its forces moving into Belarus as part of a joint military exercise in February – increasing military presence near Ukraine’s northern border and increasing tensions .

A similar buildup, albeit on a smaller scale, baffled the world last April, with Moscow mustering tens of thousands of troops near the Ukrainian border but ordering a withdrawal after weeks of tension.