Editor’s note: Andrew Korybko is an American political analyst based in Moscow. The article reflects the views of the author and not necessarily those of CGTN.

One of the latest elements of the mainstream media’s information warfare campaign against Russia is to claim that Moscow was reminded of the ‘law of unintended consequences’ after the start of its ‘special military operation’. in Ukraine. The unprecedented US-led response to this campaign resulted in the swift imposition of more sanctions against Russia than had previously been enacted against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Iran.

In addition, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov admitted that around $300 billion of his country’s $640 billion in total reserves had been frozen by the West. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also revealed: “None of our analysts ever imagined that the West would impose sanctions on [the Central Bank’s reserves]. This is theft.” Moreover, the sudden fall in the value of the ruble is cited as another supposed example of this “law” in practice.

Either way, it’s the US-led West itself that is also unexpectedly reminded of the ‘law of unintended consequences’, even though it has yet to acknowledge the results. counterproductive to its unprecedented sanctions against Russia. The following is a list of five examples proving that the West itself should be concerned that it too is being forced to face a very disadvantageous reality caused by the latest events in Eastern Europe. In no particular order:

A global food crisis is looming

French President Emmanuel Macron warned earlier this month that southern countries could plunge into a food crisis caused by the disruption of agricultural exports from Europe’s Russian-Ukrainian breadbasket. The World Trade Organization has also expressed concern about this scenario. It doesn’t help that Belarusian and Russian phosphate exports are also under sanctions. The result of any impending food crisis could be instability in the Global South and another refugee crisis.

Europe’s economy could collapse

US pressure on the EU to cut off energy imports from its main Russian supplier could exacerbate economic unrest in the country and spark large protests. It could even happen sooner rather than later if EU states refuse to pay for Russian imports in rubles, as President Vladimir Putin has demanded. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has warned that gas prices could even climb to $4,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Western dominance over global platforms and systems will diminish

The weaponization of Western platforms and systems against Russia over the past month proves that no country is immune to becoming the next potential victim of these Hybrid Warfare attacks against them. This in turn will accelerate diversification into non-Western platforms and systems which will thus accelerate the West’s declining dominance over them. Depending on how this scenario plays out, the future of globalization could be threatened if the West also arms them against other major countries.

Principled neutrality has returned to international relations

The vast majority of the world has refused to submit to US-led Western pressure to sanction Russia, preferring instead to practice a policy of principled neutrality similar to the role played by the Non-Aligned Movement in the last century. This especially includes the American allies, Israel and Turkey, as well as the new strategic partners of the United States in India. Even the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly refused to heed US President Joe Biden’s call for help to replace Russian energy.

The multipolar world order is irreversible

The reassertion of American hegemony over Europe through NATO under a renewed anti-Russian pretext was seen as an unintended positive consequence by the West, but it backfired by confirming the creation of a new bloc in international relations. The rest of the world is rightly concerned about his motives and working to preemptively thwart the possibility of his own country also coming under Hybrid War attacks. This in turn catalyzed irreversible multipolar processes like the examples mentioned above.

Whether it is the impending food crisis in the Global South, the potential collapse of the European economy, the decline of Western dominance over global platforms and systems, the revival of principled neutrality or irreversible progress toward multipolarity, it is undeniable that the US Western-led West likely did not anticipate any of these unintended consequences when it imposed its sanctions on Russia.

This shows how myopic his strategists are, they couldn’t have predicted any of this despite the fact that some of the examples mentioned were very predictable in hindsight. The lesson to be learned is that unprecedented actions lead to unprecedented consequences, including those that are unintended, which is why countries or their blocs should never rush to undertake such actions without giving due thought to the complex processes that are involved. they set up. movement.

It could be the US-led West and not Russia that ultimately regrets these sanctions, as the unintended consequences they have already triggered or threaten to soon trigger could hasten the decline of hegemony. American. It’s actually a win-win outcome for the rest of the world, but hopefully it will happen without the impending food crisis that the French leader and the WTO have just warned about, or more political instability, crises refugees or wars.

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