On April 14, the United States of America announced that it would withdraw all of its troops stationed in Afghanistan from May 1 to September 11, 2021. On the same day, NATO also announced that it would coordinate with the military. of the White House to initiate the withdrawal.

The year 2021 marks the 20th anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Afghanistan, a conflict that has lasted since the Soviet invasion of that unfortunate country on December 24, 1979.

What are the plans of NATO and the United States? How will the situation in Afghanistan change in the future?

Regarding the US announcement of the troop withdrawal deadline, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said the Afghan government respects the US government’s decision to withdraw its troops on the agreed date.

According to Associated press, there were 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan before May 1, well below the peak of over 110,000 in 2011.

According to the websites of the Financial Times and theDeutsche Welle, some ten thousand soldiers from 36 NATO member states and other American allies are currently stationed in Afghanistan, including no less than 895 Italian soldiers, as well as 1,300 Germans, 750 British, 619 Romanians, 600 Turks, etc.

President Trump’s former administration signed a peace deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan in February 2020, setting May 1, 2021 as the deadline for NATO to begin withdrawing from that country. The Washington Post reported that after the release of the withdrawal declaration by the current US government, the Taliban immediately said that if the US violated the peace agreement and did not withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, the situation would worsen and the one of the parties to the agreement would take responsibility for it. for that.

This year is the twentieth since the United States began the war in Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The war in Afghanistan is the longest foreign war in the United States and has killed more than 2,300 American soldiers and injured some 20,000 people, at a cost of more than US $ 1 trillion.

Although the United States and its allies attacked the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, the situation in Afghanistan has been troubled for a long time, with more than 100,000 Afghan civilian casualties in the fighting.

According to The New York Times, members of the two Parties in the US Congress have differing views on the consequences of the withdrawal. According to the newspaper, Republicans and some Democrats believe the withdrawal of troops will encourage the Taliban insurgency, while others believe it is necessary to end this indefinite war.

But what considerations can be made for the withdrawal of the United States and NATO from Afghanistan?

It is well known that the United States’ goal in bringing the war to Afghanistan was a very heavy retaliatory measure against Al-Qaeda, which had organized the terrorist attacks of September 11, and against the Taliban regime which protected the main leaders of this terrorist organization. Even if Al-Qaeda has not been destroyed, it is unlikely to create similar problems. The United States has achieved its strategic objectives and is no longer participating in East Asian tactics and strategy.

NATO’s interests (taking into account its individual member states) in Afghanistan are less than those of the United States. As a military alliance with the United States, the achievement of American strategic objectives means that NATO’s equal strategic objectives have also been achieved. Therefore, rather than continue to run the risk of confronting the Taliban and Al-Qaeda after the US military withdrawals, NATO is more willing to remove the “political burden” as soon as possible.

While announcing the terms of the withdrawal, the White House said the threat from extremist organizations such as Somalia al-Shabaab And ISIS is spreading globally and therefore there is no point in concentrating its forces in Afghanistan, with a steady expansion of its military cycle. At the same time, however, the White House said that after the withdrawal, diplomatic and counterterrorism mechanisms would be reorganized in Afghanistan to deal with security challenges. Therefore, from the point of view of the United States, the terrorist threat is currently more Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

The prospect of advancing the Indo-Pacific regional strategy to oppose China also means that it would be counterproductive for the United States to stay in Afghanistan any longer. Even after the troops withdraw, there will be insecurity in Afghanistan. That being the case, however, the United States will always find ways and means to support the Afghan regime and the armed forces of the government in Kabul.

The Washington Post also reported the statements of a Pentagon official who pointed out that Afghanistan is a landlocked country: therefore, once US and NATO forces withdraw, one of the biggest challenges will be to know how to effectively monitor and combat extremist organizations and resist threats to American security: at this distance, it will be even more difficult without landings at sea.

According to Reuters, the CIA predicts that the possibility of a new US-Afghanistan peace deal is minimal and has warned that once the US and its allies pull out, it will be difficult to stop the Taliban.

Afghan government forces currently control Kabul and other major cities, but the Taliban are present in more than half of the country’s territory and rural areas. In the future, the possibility of a Taliban counteroffensive cannot be ruled out.

From Great Britain The Guardian said the years of war have generally left Afghans feeling very insecure and withdrawing troops will not bring much comfort to the local population. According to the London-based newspaper, for the United States, this is another war that cannot be won.

According to experts, there are two extreme possibilities in the future situation in Afghanistan. The excellent situation is one in which the less extremist wing of the Taliban intervenes so that, once the United States withdraws, the Taliban can gradually move from an extremist organization to an internal administrative organization, and then negotiate with the United States. legitimate government backed by the United Nations: this would mean long-term peace after forty-two years of war.

In extremely adverse circumstances, on the contrary, the Afghan government forces would overestimate their military strength and would intend to continue the war alone against their traditional adversaries, in which case the peace negotiations between the two parties would fail.

It would mean falling back into a protracted civil war and into an eternal war.

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