Central Asia: Speak to the Lyrics

For many years, India’s ties with Central Asian states were long on symbolism and short on strategic weight. To be sure, there were important ties with some of the five countries – Kazakhstan is the country’s largest supplier of uranium and India has a long-standing presence at the Farkhor military air base in Tajikistan. The stage for qualitative change was set with the visits of Prime Ministers to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in 2015 and the launch of the India-Central Asia Dialogue, a mechanism bringing together Ministers of Foreign Affairs, in 2019. The Asian summit hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week was, in many ways, the culmination of these efforts.
The virtual meeting came at a time when the importance of the five states has increased, particularly in light of developments in Afghanistan. The leaders agreed to establish a joint task force on Afghanistan and establish an institutionalized framework for regular collaboration and interaction, including holding the summit every two years. There was also talk of working jointly on connectivity initiatives centered on India’s presence in Iran’s Chabahar port and creating a roadmap that builds on the past 30 years of relations. Mr Modi has made clear that Central Asia is key to India’s vision of an “extended, integrated and stable neighbourhood” and the decision to hold regular meetings of senior security officials reflects the emphasis on security issues for all countries.
These plans for the future are a welcome development, but now India will have to follow the chops. Trade between India and Central Asian states was worth $3 billion in 2020, with Kazakhstan accounting for over 80%. By contrast, China’s trade with the region was worth almost 10 times as much, and Beijing stepped up deliveries of military hardware to Central Asian states. It will not be enough for the six countries to talk about longstanding links between places such as Samarkand and Agra and connectivity initiatives. India needs to do more to wean Central Asian states off China’s largesse, and that clearly comes at a cost. There are also differences in approach to Afghanistan, with some Central Asian states showing greater willingness to work with the Taliban apparatus. However, the basic elements are now in place and India has the means to take its relations to a higher qualitative level while working for greater regional stability.
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