By Lim Teck Ghee and BA Hamzah *

Recent events have highlighted the possibility and danger of ASEAN being sandwiched between the United States and China in a new cold war that has the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea regions as the main battle front.

It is clear that the US strategy to target China as an enemy can only have negative consequences in the form of an intensification of the arms race and militarization. The most pessimistic outcome could be a nuclear holocaust that will affect all of humanity.

Although put on the defensive by identifying the United States as a rival to eat its lunch and thus be shot, it is in China’s interest to refrain from retaliation against the United States and to work to a peaceful and friendly outcome in the areas of contestation that emerged between them.

Meanwhile, concerns are growing that the United States and China could be on the brink of nuclear war as the struggle for primacy escalates. The greatest danger appears to center on the South China Sea, which China claims to be its own, using logic not much different from the Monroe Doctrine that the United States has employed in the Caribbean and Latin America since. 1823 to claim that any intervention in the politics of the Americas by foreign powers is a potentially hostile act against the United States.

In January, to highlight nuclear dangers and other global perils, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the end of the world clock from two minutes to 100 seconds at midnight. It’s closer to humanity’s apocalyptic hour than at any time since its inception in 1947.

According to the Arms Control Association, there are 13,500 nuclear warheads in the world. Ninety percent is owned by Russia and the United States with a total payload of 6,600 megatons, enough to destroy the world many times over. Some 3,500 warheads are in military service: 700 deliverable warheads are in China.

Is the world any closer to Herman Kahn’s theory of “Thinking the Unthinkable” (1960), that is, states using thermonuclear weapons to win impossible wars? Will China or its ally North Korea attack Japan for working to maintain US military dominance and for its current and past anti-China and anti-Korean policies? Is Washington thinking of the unthinkable against an equally stubborn China that will not budge in the face of threats from the United States?

Instead of the United States overreacting to China’s growing military, economic, and cultural might, or taking advantage of declining American influence to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy, the two superpowers must bury the ax. of war and minimize their geopolitical differences to promote peace and stability in the world. They should mobilize their resources to overcome their own national shortcomings and just as, if not more importantly, focus their attention on the defining crisis of our time: covid 19 and climate change.

Can this idealistic scenario play out on the global geopolitical scene and what can make it happen?

UNSC’s Glimmer of Hope

On January 3, a rare joint statement by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) including China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States affirmed

• Nuclear war is the last thing the world needs. A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought
• Nuclear weapons – as long as they exist – should be used for defensive purposes, deter aggression and prevent war
• The importance of preserving and respecting bilateral and multilateral agreements and commitments on non-proliferation, disarmament and arms control in order to avoid a nuclear holocaust
• The intention to continue to seek bilateral and multilateral diplomatic approaches to avoid military clashes, enhance stability and predictability, increase mutual understanding and trust, and prevent an arms race that would benefit no one and endanger all

In addition to reaffirming the group’s agreement on the nuclear issue, the declaration is significant insofar as the five signatories underline their willingness to work with “all States” and their resolution “to pursue a constructive dialogue in mutual respect and recognition of security interests and concerns ”. This is a clear recognition of the multipolar world system and a repudiation of the uni- or bipolar world advanced by proponents of US and West domination and hegemony.

Openness for ASEAN to leave a mark

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should follow up on this important opening of the United Nations Security Council to advance its opposition to AUKUS and reiterate the anti-nuclear position of member countries. This step is necessary to ensure that the nations of Southeast Asia are not entangled or compromised in the United States’ campaign against China.

A more difficult option for ASEAN to pursue – but more beneficial to the cause of peace and security in the region – is for the Association to play a role of honest arbiter or intermediary in the conflict between the two. superpowers. Instead of taking sides with one or the other power. If ASEAN member states can become an honest broker in easing the rivalry between the two, they would be doing the region a great service.

To our knowledge, ASEAN has yet to offer either power its willingness to act as a mediator. Perhaps this is because ASEAN has yet to get its affairs in order. Nonetheless, it is a challenge that we urge ASEAN and its members to consider in the next cycle of their engagement with the two superpowers.

The scenario of a “Thucydides’ Trap” situation used to describe the tendency to war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power is clearly occurring now. In addition to the “Thucydides Trap”, there is also the danger that the two superpowers will fall into the “Churchill Trap”. A protracted confrontation like the one that took place between the United States and the USSR, and which drew small and medium-sized countries, will inflict enormous damage on all participating nations, in addition to the two competing powers.

Opportunities also exist for the pursuit by ASEAN member states of an improved and stronger concept of non-alignment that can go beyond the traditional policy of non-participation in military affairs in a bipolar world.

It may seem difficult for the small ASEAN states to help moderate the US-Sino rivalry and draw the world’s attention to the challenges of the 21st century. Nonetheless, it is worthy of consideration.

Challenges associated with the pandemic and climate change

How to insert and operationalize a comprehensive concept of non-alignment in global relations so that the small and medium-sized nations that make up the Non-Aligned Movement and ASEAN can exert a moderating influence in our multipolar world is a topic that we believe hopefully, can figure prominently in ASEAN’s think tanks and future planning.

Beyond the realm of global politics, ASEAN should use its influence to pressure China and the United States to work closely together to address the many pressing challenges outside the political arena. . These socio-economic and environmental challenges threaten regional and global peace and security as much, if not more, than the arms race and militarization.

Among the poorest countries, in addition to the long-standing challenge of alleviating food and water shortages, reducing poverty and inequality and helping to ensure sustainable development, the impact of the pandemic threatens to roll back all the development gains made over the past decade.

Globally, the World Resources Institute has identified seven challenges that must be addressed to reduce poverty, develop economies and protect natural systems. They are food, forests, water, energy, cities, climate and the ocean. These challenges are not only inextricably linked. They are at greater risk due to the impact of rapid and uncontrollable climate change for which every country is unprepared or poorly managed.

Today, the severity of the damage to economies, livelihoods, health and overall development caused by the pandemic and environmental changes has never been clearer. Indicators of rising oceans, declining ice levels, changes in snow and precipitation regimes, melting glaciers and increasing land air temperatures have reached an all-time high since data trends have been recorded over the past 150 years or so.

Given the enormous costs and adverse consequences resulting from any move towards new forms of cold war, it is imperative that the two superpowers, along with other key nations, put aside their geopolitical differences to ensure leadership in management. global commons and our humanity at risk. .

• Lim Teck Ghee is a political analyst and author of “Challenging the Status Quo in Malaysia”
• BA Hamzah is a student of geopolitics and international law