The Burmese junta is confident Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will restore relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), but analysts say the strongman is wrong to think he can change the position of the bloc against the military regime.

Speaking to RFA’s Myanmar service, junta spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun said that a planned visit from Hun Sen, who will assume the rotating role of ASEAN chairman next month , would put in place the alliance’s approach to the political situation in Myanmar, which has been called into question. mess when the military seized power in a February 1 coup.

Hun Sen intends to visit Naypyidaw on January 7, accompanied by his new ASEAN Special Envoy to Myanmar, Prak Sokhonn, who is also Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Foreign Minister of Cambodia.

“Cambodia and Myanmar are close countries due to our cultures and historical backgrounds, and as such when they visit us on ASEAN business, Cambodia will be able to take a stand. correct, ”Zaw Min Tun said. “And for Myanmar, I hope a fair deal will be reached.”

In the weeks and months following the coup, security personnel committed human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests, rapes and killings. Nearly 8,100 civilians have been arrested and 1,346 killed by junta authorities since February, according to the AAPP, mostly during non-violent protests against the coup.

Junta leader Snr. General Min Aung Hlaing initially signaled to ASEAN – of which Myanmar is one of the ten member states – that he would end the violence in his country and allow the bloc to send an envoy to monitor the situation in following a meeting in April. However, after months of failure to implement measures to do so, relations between the two sides deteriorated as ASEAN chose not to invite junta delegations to several high-level meetings, including including its annual peak.

Outgoing ASEAN Special Envoy to Myanmar, Brunei’s Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof, attempted to visit the country in October but was refused entry by the junta, prompting rebuffs reciprocal.

Unity with Member States

Burmese political analyst Than Soe Naing told RFA that the most powerful members of ASEAN would not accept any change in the bloc’s stance towards Myanmar, even if Hun Sen plans to treat the junta with gloves.

“Hun Sen can try as much as he wants to bring [Min Aung Hlaing] within the ASEAN fold, but most ASEAN member states, especially Malaysia and Indonesia, will not agree, ”he said.

“I think these two countries will continue to stand firm. And I think ASEAN will continue to adhere to the resolutions set out at the previous meeting. “

Earlier this month, Than Soe Naing said that Hun Sen’s planned visit to Myanmar would be an attempt to give the junta a seat on the international stage, but suggested it would lead to little recognition in the midst of its violent and continuous repression of demonstrators.

ASEAN expert Moe Thuzar told RFA that the bloc’s policy on Myanmar will not change until the deal reached at the April summit is implemented.

“To change this position, ASEAN should conduct many discussions and consultations,” she said. “Many of the major ASEAN member countries know this. For these countries, they cannot easily move to a new position until they see further development of the junta in accordance with … recommendations already agreed upon. “

Moe Thuzar called it “imperative” that the ASEAN president act on Myanmar only after negotiating with other member countries.

Adhere to the policy

Thein Tun Oo, executive director of the Thayninga Institute of Strategic Studies, a group of former Myanmar military officers, told RFA that there was no reason Myanmar should be excluded from ASEAN if the junta joined. to the April agreement.

He suggested that the United States was trying to divide the unity of ASEAN in an effort to counter China for control of the Indo-Pacific region.

“The extent of US external pressure, especially at a time when the US Secretary of State is making several trips to meet with ASEAN, will be a major factor in Cambodia’s attempt to resettle Myanmar at the ASEAN summit. “, did he declare.

“There will be an impact. But if the ASEAN Charter is to be respected, there is no reason why Myanmar cannot attend these meetings.

Bo Hla Tint, the ASEAN Ambassador to Myanmar’s shadow government of national unity, said the bloc should continue to adhere to the consensus policy and find a solution without compromising the military regime.

“The words and actions of a rotating president contrast with the current position of ASEAN and the… recommendations that members have agreed upon,” he said.

“For ASEAN to have a realistic position and be a meaningful organization that the whole region can count on, the president, the member countries or the whole group must work resolutely according to its principles to find a solution. We cannot allow Mr. Hun Sen to compromise with the military leader to find a solution. We are totally opposed to this path.

Brunei, the current president of ASEAN, will end his term on December 31 and hand over the rotating leadership role to Cambodia on January 1, 2022. Hun Sen pledged to “do his best for Myanmar” when he will assume the presidency.

Reported by the Myanmar service of RFA. Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.