BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis and untold stories
With SAMUEL STOLTON

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Barnier’s last roll of the dice

It is July 7, 2016, and a private jet is carrying a contingent of European Commission officials to the NATO summit in Warsaw. On the plane, Michel Barnier sits alongside current President Jean-Claude Juncker.

The Frenchman is in ten months a new role of special adviser to the defense of Juncker and accompanies his colleagues in Poland in order to facilitate the signing of an EU-NATO cooperation agreement.

BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES is a weekly newsletter that features untold stories about the characters who drive the policies that affect our lives. An analysis not found elsewhere, Samuel Stolton of the Brussels Times helps you understand what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels behind the scenes every week straight to your inbox, subscribe to the newsletter here.

It is a testing period for the alliance. Russia has increased its presence along the far ends of Europe’s eastern front, following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told parliament the country should prepare for a “full-scale invasion” of Russia.

Barnier is honored by the trust Juncker has placed in him, having been kept close to the highest levels of European power. In 2014, he lost to the former Luxembourg Prime Minister in his candidacy to become a candidate of the European People’s Party (EPP) for the presidency of the Commission.

At the EPP conference in Dublin that year, Juncker defeated Barnier by 382 votes to 245. The French appealed to the right wing of the conservative political spectrum – notably contracting support for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz group . Barnier would later remain faithful to this same right wing fabric. Juncker was a larger church and after the 2014 elections he would continue to lead Europe.

From there, Juncker and Barnier’s relationship could have grown cold, awkward, distorted, distant. In the end, this is not the case.

Barnier had accumulated a wealth of political experience in Paris and Brussels. He had been Minister of the Environment and later Secretary of State for European Affairs under Jacques Chirac in the mid-1990s. In the government of Jean-Pierre Raffarin, he became Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2004. In the capital of In the EU, Barnier had been special adviser to former Commission President José Manuel Barroso before becoming the bloc’s internal market chief.

After the defeat in Dublin and Juncker’s success in obtaining the presidency of the Commission, Barnier found himself at a crossroads. Paris had veered to the left under President Hollande, and it was not clear how Brussels could accommodate it.

Juncker threw Barnier a bone. For some, the unpaid advisory role may have been viewed as insignificant to someone of Barnier’s reputation. The Frenchman graciously accepted the post, but in reality he was biding his time for something more substantial. This ‘something’ was first suggested to him on the Commission’s chartered flight to Warsaw.

Less than a month earlier, British citizens voted to withdraw from the EU in a landmark referendum. It was not yet clear how the two sides would chart the way forward, but Juncker had to appoint someone with a formidable political profile to take the reins on behalf of the bloc. On the plane to Poland, Juncker had a light bulb moment.

As Barnier’s recently published Brexit memoir tells, The Great IllusionJuncker took Barnier out of diplomatic adviser Richard Szostak’s reach to present the offer.

Barnier was taken aback, considering himself more useful to the French nationally than to the EU in future Brexit negotiations, both perilous and full of political sensitivities as they would prove later.

Despite this, he considered an opportunity. Perhaps the role could one day strengthen its European profile to the point of potentially leading to a coveted leadership role on the world stage. Perhaps in the long term he will be able to win the presidency. Juncker has asked Barnier to keep the offer to himself, for the time being.

That evening, the couple stole some private moments together. Over a glass of beer in their hotel restaurant, they watched France beat Germany in the semifinals of the European football championships. Barnier returns to Brussels with renewed vigor. Later that month, his appointment as the EU’s lead negotiator in the Brexit negotiations was publicly announced.

By the time I first met Barnier in his Berlaymont office in 2018, he had easily settled into the role. There was a biography of Churchill on a glass coffee table in the corner of the room, a photo of the 1992 Winter Olympics in Albertville on its wall. The features testify to a contrast in Barnier’s political consciousness – an unwavering commitment to “ the local ” (he had completed his secondary education at Lycée Jean-Moulin d’Albertville), trapped by his broader supranational ambitions .

The tenors of European ambition have always followed Barnier’s political path. I remember a European Parliament hearing in which he was pressed on his goals for the 2019 European elections – would he once again be able to nominate his name to lead the EPP as a potential Spitzenkandidat ? The investigator was probably optimistic that Brexit negotiations could be concluded by then. Barnier was speechless. He knew Brexit was far from over.

Fast forward to the present day, and after more than four years of tumultuous negotiations between the EU and the United Kingdom, it is towards his country of origin that the Frenchman gravitates. While he appears to have dashed his ambitions for a presidential post at EU level, he now believes he is well prepared to participate in the French presidential elections next year.

In February of this year, Barnier created a working group within his The Republicans party, dubbed the “Patriot and European” faction. He wanted to gauge support for his policies.

The first manifestations of Barnier’s political stance on key issues were, however, poorly received in France. He was criticized in a recent television interview in which he pitched the idea of ​​suspending immigration to the country from outside the EU for three to five years, and confused the immigration with certain risks for French society, in particular the rise in crime and terrorism.

With rhetoric like this, Barnier remains loyal to his supporters to the right of the Conservative family. However, he is not right-handed enough to convince Marine Le Pen’s allies National gathering get off the ship, and his committed European federalism probably doesn’t help in that either.

This week, pollsters have play with the idea of ​​Barnier contracting the presidential nomination for The Republicans. Predictions suggest he would do well against either Le Pen or Macron, with conservative hopeful rival Xavier Bertrand having a better chance.

Barnier’s last roll of the dice could very well be risky: if he fails in his French presidential ambitions, there is a deadlock in his career path that could prove too laborious to overcome. Perhaps Juncker’s offer all those years ago aboard the Commission flight to Warsaw was a poisoned chalice, only making it useful while Brexit talks were ongoing. His work in Brussels is now over and there is a chance his appeal to French conservatives has expired. Perhaps he will return to Albertville. Maybe he won’t.

BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES is a weekly newsletter that features untold stories about the characters who drive the policies that affect our lives. An analysis not found elsewhere, Samuel Stolton of the Brussels Times helps you understand what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels behind the scenes every week straight to your inbox, subscribe to the newsletter here.