AUKUS: A dangerous military alliance
AUKUS is named after Australia, United Kingdom and United States. On September 16, 2021, AUKUS was declared. It is a historic security and military alliance for the Pacific. The alliance will provide Australia with defense technologies, including nuclear submarines and powerful missile management. Alliance members will also exchange defense intelligence with each other. Cyberspace, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, safe navigation strategies, joint military offices and various military operations will be conducted from the same platform. This military alliance is essentially aimed at dealing with the influence of China. Last month, the United States and earlier Australia and the United Kingdom withdrew their troops from Afghanistan, focusing on the Indo-Pacific and China.
The United States believes that having nuclear-powered ships could quickly pave the way for the development of atomic bombs. This is why he supplied the nuclear propulsion technology to the British ally. Nuclear-powered submarines will prepare Australia to join the nuclear energy club. If there is a war with China, it will be a nuclear war. How many days and at what time the nuclear submarine will reach Canberra have been kept under wraps. However, it is believed that it will take a decade to supply the 12, at least eight nuclear-powered submarines.
As a result of the deal, Australia canceled the $ 90 billion submarine deal with France. France was the first to lose to American AUKUS diplomacy. France has lost much of its status as a world power. The fall of Paris is expected since the placement of the French army under American command within the integrated command of NATO in 2009.
France is not just a European metropolis; It is a constellation of regions around the world after the United States, making it the second largest maritime domain in the world. The Indo-Pacific and neighboring regions are home to 1.6 million French people. That is to say, France is a power in the Indo-Pacific region.
Australia’s decision to rescind its deal with France to supply submarines, and instead obtain the type of nuclear-powered submarines used by the Americans and the British, is a blow to the United States. French. The decision was officially announced to France just hours before it was made public, when time was running out. Therefore, the agreement of these three countries is called treason.
According to Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister and now president of the Asia Society and one of the world’s leading experts in the English-speaking world, China Observer, a nuclear or conventional submarine has a lifespan of 30 years. The lifespan of a nuclear reactor in a submarine is the same. Thus, Australia will not need to develop nuclear power generation separately for submarines. The Australians will get 12 submarines. But no technology will be transferred outside of training on how these submarines can be maintained, or Australians will not have the freedom to operate such submarines of their choice.
In other words, Australian submarines will only support the US Navy, not an independent military force. The Kiwis are happy to use the card as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China, a major trading partner. The American trump card is that Taiwan could be bloody at any time to sack China.
China claims AUKUS is yet another sinister US move aimed at a military confrontation in the South China Sea. Since 2015, the Chinese military has been training to occupy the presidential palace in Taiwan and has built a replica of it.
The day after the announcement, China formally applied to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership proposed by President Obama. It turns out that Beijing offers economic exchanges and Washington offers war.
Influenced by the ideology of the non-aligned movement, ASEAN has not responded, but Indonesia has already expressed frustration. ASEAN wants to create a huge free trade area, which includes China. NATO is also silent. It had ambitions to expand into the Indo-Pacific region, and NATO understands that it will not be part of any game. New Zealand has declared its adherence to the policy of nuclear disarmament. As a result, nuclear-weapon ships have been denied entry into its ports.
The AUKUS deal brings the issue of the strategic security of the Indo-Pacific back to the forefront and has also affected the balance of power in South Asia between the nuclear rivals of Pakistan and India.
Unfortunately, after the failure of military operations in the Middle East and Central Asia, it appears that the Western bloc wants to test the depth and the waters edge of East Asia and the Pacific. Barack Obama wanted to advance the policy of the “pivot towards Asia”, which is in the process of being renewed. Once the spark from a nuclear submarine is heated in ocean water, it may not be possible to control this arms race.
Analysts describe AUKUS as a “new cold war” between the United States and China. If Australia is equipped with nuclear weapons, India will also advocate for the acquisition of more nuclear submarines and other nuclear weapons.
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh has hinted that New Delhi may change its “non-first use of nuclear weapons” policy. Such a change in Indian policy could also force China to change its policy of not using nuclear weapons first. And in South Asia, a new wave of competition for nuclear weapons could begin.
US-Indian cooperation on sensitive defense technologies could upset the balance of strategic power in South Asia. If Modi’s BJP retaliates by increasing its own naval nuclear capacity, Islamabad will not stand still on the strategic nuclear maritime security chessboard to strengthen its alliance with China.
We have seen that the great powers operate nuclear warships in the Indian Ocean in blatant disregard of the 1968 NPT, UNSCR 255 and UNSCR 984 Nuclear Security Assurance. Therefore, without entering into any alliance, Bangladesh needs to acquire nuclear submarines for its maritime, island and offshore security.
India has been very negligent with regard to nuclear energy. In Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and Nagpur, state-sponsored nuclear smuggling and uranium theft easily led to smuggling and sale to terrorists on the black market. This is a serious concern for the international community. Carelessness can lead to many disasters.
India has now embarked on a hegemonic “maritime strategy” in South Asia. Rapid military modernization and the acquisition of naval technology have increased Pakistan’s threat level.
The United States’ anti-China security concerns are conducive to India’s foreign policy. There is no doubt that Delhi will now further strengthen its naval alliance with Washington. This is why Islamabad may be motivated to strike an awkward deal to resist India.
To maintain peace in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, Pakistan has already expressed its desire to further strengthen its naval capabilities through Modern Warfare Management (CMS), long-range patrol aircraft, unmanned combat aircraft, sophisticated weapons, satellites and surveillance systems. This arms race could make the security situation in the subcontinent more unstable and complicated.
France has accused its allies of double standards for canceling its multi-million dollar deal with Australia. The French foreign minister said the relationship had given rise to a “serious crisis”. It’s pretty clear that nuclear submarines are targeting China. Will Australia’s nuclear submarines protect the country from a major threat to the defense of small Pacific states, or make it more dangerous? It is now another matter of calculation.
The UKUS debate raises a number of other questions, such as the possibility that even close allies could be abandoned if business contacts are threatened. The French defense industry could have struck a lucrative deal if the Australians had taken the lead. France will never forget it. There are many historical reasons for this. As the Western bloc opens new fronts in the Indo-Pacific region, China will also step up preparations. The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, the world believed, had quenched the United States’ thirst for world military courage. The sudden action and betrayal of France proves the futile idea. Washington is preparing for a long-term military confrontation with China.
To keep China under political and military pressure, the vast maritime area will be controlled by Quad + (US and UK, as well as Australia, India and Japan). It looks like Washington is gearing up for war in a decade or two. But Beijing might not give anti-Chinese forces time on the Taiwan issue.
Meanwhile, China accused AUKUS of having a “cold war mentality”. North Korea says the deal for a nuclear submarine will spark a regional arms race. Malaysia says the deal is a “catalyst for a nuclear arms race”.
Unfortunately, after the failure of military operations in the Middle East and Central Asia, it appears that the Western bloc wants to test the depth and the waters edge of East Asia and the Pacific. Barack Obama wanted to advance the policy of the “pivot to Asia”, which is in the process of being renewed. Once the spark from a nuclear submarine is heated in ocean water, it may not be possible to control this arms race.