While President Joe Biden appears to have a big plan to push his infrastructure priorities through Congress, voters are divided over whether they think he can get it done. The second part of his legislative ploy in particular is in question: a reconciliation bill that would fund a number of his political priorities – mostly social benefits built into the U.S. plan for families, but potentially climate action as well – and would pass by simple majority.

A new poll from Morning Consult and Politico found that 40% of voters are confident that a second part of the infrastructure plan will be passed, while 42% say they are not confident. Nineteen percent don’t know or don’t have an opinion.

For lawmakers invested in taking urgent action on climate change, the fate of the reconciliation bill is paramount. The first infrastructure deal – reached by a bipartisan group of senators late last week – omits many of the key climate-focused elements of the U.S. jobs plan and other Democratic proposals, including a standard for clean energy, renewable energy tax credits and a phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies, among others.

A number of lawmakers have said they will not vote for an infrastructure package without climate provisions, a fact that has helped Biden voice his “two-way” plan, both with a bipartisan bill. focused on physical infrastructure and a reconciliation bill that includes “infrastructure” and other more progressive priorities. Reconciliation is a process that allows legislation on taxes, spending and debt control to be passed by Congress by simple majority if both houses agree on a budget resolution establishing “reconciliation guidelines” for committees.

Senator Chuck Schumer (DN.Y.) a would have called on those drafting the original budget resolution to ensure that the climate and energy provisions, which include tax credits designed to push the power sector to cut emissions by 80% d ‘by 2030, be included, according to a Senate leadership adviser with knowledge of the talks.

But while Democrats have the manpower to continue the reconciliation process without any Republican support, left-wing lawmakers are far from a homogeneous bloc and their majority is slim. Finding a deal that will satisfy progressive and climate-driven senses Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) And Ed Markey (D-Mass.) As well as moderates Joe Manchin (DW.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz. ) is easier said than done.

However, a majority of Democratic voters remain optimistic. Sixty-one percent say they are “very” or “somewhat” confident in the final passage of a second bill, while 25% are not confident.

But Republicans are less convinced, with more than half (54%) saying they are “not very” or “not at all” confident, and 23% of them are “very” or “somewhat” confident. that a second packet will pass. The June 25-28 poll took place over a weekend when Republican lawmakers vocally voiced their opposition and outrage at the prospect of Biden’s “two-track” approach to passing legislation on infrastructure (before the president issued a statement allaying some of their concerns that he may veto the bipartisan bill).

Responses from independent voters were closer to those from Republicans, with 30% confidence and 49% less than confidence in Democrats’ ability to push infrastructure priorities through reconciliation.

Voters are equally divided over what an infrastructure package – whether in one or two parts – should include: 42% say the overall plan should focus exclusively on financing physical infrastructure needs, such as repairing roads and bridges, and 41% say so should also include funding for social benefits such as child care, elderly care, education and health care.

This latter set of priorities is likely to be the subject of the second bill pursued through reconciliation, although there are discussions on adding climate and renewable energy provisions that are not included in the first. bill on infrastructure.

The poll polled 1,989 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.